Publication date: 22-01-2026
Author: Styn Mulderink
The everyday dependence of consumers on molecules from the chemical industry is enormous, as chemistry is present in 96% of everything you touch. This underlines why direction, scale, and boldness in the circular transition are now crucial. At the same time, basic industry accounts for around 40% of energy consumption in the Netherlands, comparable to the usage of 8 million Dutch households. The importance of making industry more sustainable will therefore not come as a surprise.
The route toward a circular economy by 2050 has been clearly mapped out. Reports, visions, and analyses abound; there is no shortage of paper. Yet the uncomfortable truth remains that the chemical and fuels sectors are still miles away from the scale of change required to reach net zero. While the Netherlands has a unique starting position, momentum risks being lost due to a lack of coordination, direction, market incentives, and boldness. The failure of European industrial policy was once again confirmed last week. Vioneo announced that it is scrapping a €1.5 billion investment in a ”green” plastics factory in the port of Antwerp; the plant will ultimately be built in China.
What is missing is a long-term strategy with joint implementation.
Where there is a will, there is a way
The basic building blocks of many products, such as plastics, contain carbon. When this carbon does not come from fossil sources but is recycled, used in a circular manner, or captured from the atmosphere, it is referred to as circular carbon. It then follows a closed loop instead of being released as CO2 through combustion. The Dutch basic industry and the Port of Rotterdam cluster, hold a unique position to become a frontrunner in the transition toward circular carbon. The Port of Rotterdam, for example, has infrastructure for CO2 storage, space for the import and export of biofuels, and access to demand in the industrial clusters of Northwest Europe. However, anyone who believes that this starting position will automatically lead to success is mistaken. Uncertainty about future policy and market development is holding back investment. Companies operate in a global market where fossil fuels remain cheaper, and where Europe at times gets entangled in its own regulation. Ambitious public-private decision-making and cooperation are needed to restore trust between both parties, creating room for a credible and consistent strategy.
Adapt or transform
In its research on the pathway toward a sustainable chemicals and fuels industry, SmartPort distinguishes between two routes: adaptation and transformation. This SmartPort report shows that if we choose transformation rather than adaptation, the share of circular carbon used for chemical production rises to 80% instead of 0% by 2050. Adaptation includes measures such as heat integration, in which residual heat from the cracking process is reused for other process steps or for steam generation, while transformation focuses more on the use of green methanol, ammonia, or hydrogen. These fuels are produced from biogenic carbon, and that same carbon is later reused for chemical products, plastics, or synthetic fuels.
The market for sustainable chemicals barely exists. Willingness to pay is low, and companies are still incentivized to optimize fossil-based processes rather than replace them. As long as fossil subsidies continue to be granted through the national Climate Fund, the deep investments required for the climate transition will not materialize. Over the past 20 years, the chemical industry has largely used available capital flows for shareholders instead of for strategic investments. As a result, the investment base needed today to truly replace fossil processes is lacking.
The greatest shortcoming: a government without a clear industrial vision
The industry is not asking for subsidies. It is asking for certainty. A representative from the industry notes that there is simply no private business case for the chemical industry. The Director of ‘Centraal Plan Bureau’ (CPB), Hasekamp, counters that the basic industry lacks sufficient justification and that the industry should only be supported if there is a reasonable expectation that such support will lead to results, for example through a competitive green basic industry. At the same time, he warns of the risk that production may ultimately be cheaper in countries with more developed green energy systems.
The Wennink Report, an independent advisory report commissioned by the Schoof Cabinet on the future earning capacity of the Netherlands shows that the Dutch investment climate does not fall short in ideas, but in predictability, speed, and administrative coherence. Projects do not get stuck on technology, but due to an accumulation of systemic bottlenecks: slow and unpredictable regulation, lengthy permitting procedures, a lack of nitrogen emission space, scarcity of physical space, grid congestion, structurally high electric costs, and limited access to financing. Each of these factors is already restrictive on its own; together they make large-scale investments practically impossible. The ”nitrogen impasse” is the clearest example of this: cross-sectoral, long-running, and entirely administrative-legal in nature. That this is not an exception is also evident from the 14,044 companies and organizations waiting for an electricity connection, and from projects such as Porthos, which suffered two years of delay due to procedural hurdles.
Within the ARRRA cluster, a collaboration of the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Rhine-Ruhr Area, trilateral consultation on the future of the chemical industry is now taking place, but this cooperation is still searching for concrete form and implementation capacity. Many discussions remain focused at the European level, whereas for the cluster, the decisive factors are the physical preconditions, including shared infrastructure for CO2 storage and transport, hydrogen, and electricity. What industry and society now need is chefsache action from leaders, because without a concrete plan, the industry will remain hesitant to pursue change. The Wennink Report states that more than € 20billion of investments will need to be directly related to the chemical sector. This includes, among other things, the greening of crackers, gasification, and methanol-to-olefins (€ 9.3billion), Chemistry for Defense (€5.5billion), and Innovation Chemistry NL (€2billion), as well as projects for circular plastics (€0.9billion), carbon technologies, and CO2 capture and reuse, or CCU (€1.9billion).
Macroeconomist Edin Mujagić argues that these investments do not address problems at their root, but instead create a jungle of rules, fiscal arrangements, and allowances. Professor of Public Economics Bas Jacobs likewise argues that the problems in the tax system must first be resolved before, yet another fiscal patchwork solution is developed.
Synergy is key, but it does not emerge on its own
The chemical and fuels sectors need each other. The Van Kempen report ”Choices for the Climate and the Energy Transition” shows that a coordination problem exists within industry. Both sectors share infrastructure, feedstocks, residual streams, and risks, yet they still too often operate in separate worlds, with separate trade associations, separate policy frameworks, and separate investment plans. Although chemicals, basic industry, and fuels are closely intertwined, the lack of clear delineation in policy leads to fragmentation and conflicting incentives.
The joint vision developed by the Royal Association of the Dutch Chemical Industry (VNCI), the Association Energy for Mobility and Industry (VEMOBIN), the Port of Rotterdam Authority, and other parties, to transition from fossil to sustainable carbon sources such as waste, biomass, and captured CO2 is a good starting point.
According to an expert from the chemical industry, a strong mandate is therefore a prerequisite for connecting circular chemistry and fuels. There is certainly interest in adapting value chains. However, the current focus is primarily on reducing CO2 emissions. An example where the chemical value chain already operates in a circular manner is the company CIRCTEC, which uses chemical recycling to convert end-of-life car tires into circular feedstocks such as fuels, chemical building blocks, and recovered carbon black for reuse in new products.
The call to action: choose direction, choose collaboration, choose speed
What is needed now is political courage and industrial cooperation;
- The government must finally put forward a long-term industrial vision that provides certainty, forces market creation, and takes strategic autonomy seriously.
- Industry and government must stop pursuing parallel paths: the transition requires integration, not fragmentation.
The Netherlands must move away from the reflex to optimize what ultimately needs to be phased out. We must dare to choose real transformation, and that means investing together, sharing risks together, and jointly building a circular value chain that is greater than the sum of its parts. A future Commissioner for Prosperity (as stated in Rapport Wennink) could help by providing independent advice to the government through a multi-year perspective. We must also expect companies to lead with a clear moral compass, shaping a future that is sustainable, prosperous, and accountable.
If we fail to follow through, we will lose not only our basic industry, but also our strategic autonomy. We will miss a historic opportunity to reinvent European industry, one that is more sustainable, smarter, and stronger than it has ever been.
Venturn
It is precisely at this intersection of leadership, collaboration, and execution that Venturn positions itself as a trusted partner in leadership and development. With more than 25 years of experience in the maritime supply chain, Venturn supports companies in shaping the necessary transformations and in developing a culture that stimulates innovation and sustainability. In this way, Venturn not only supports companies in their strategic choices, but also in developing the leaders who can truly realize the transition to circular carbon.
More information? Visit our website: www.venturn.nl